September 2026 Market Review & Commentary

We hope you’re enjoying the cooler October weather and staying well. As you read this recap, our family will be heading to Bar Harbor and Acadia National Park for our annual trip. This visit feels especially meaningful because it will be Channing’s last with us before college.

With the world feeling unsettled, we’re looking forward to unplugging, enjoying nature, and taking a few deep breaths (in addition to maybe some lobster 😊. We hope you can also set aside your phone and television for a moment to find some peace outdoors.

Around the North Georgia office, Chelsea’s regular-season soccer schedule is officially underway, which means the Gough family will be spending plenty of weekends traveling around Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina for the foreseeable future. Before the busiest part of the schedule arrived, we were able to sneak away to Orange Beach, Alabama, for our annual Fall Break trip with some close friends. One of the nice perks of Georgia’s unique school calendar is having a few extra breaks during times of the year when it can still feel very much like beach weather. It was a great opportunity to enjoy a little downtime before a busy fall of soccer and travel gets into full swing.

Market Update

September closed out a third quarter that once again demonstrated how much can be happening beneath the surface of the market. The S&P 500 declined approximately -0.3% during September, while the Nasdaq-100 gained +3.3% as large technology and growth companies continued to provide support. For the full third quarter, the S&P 500 gained +2.3%, while the Nasdaq-100 gained +0.6%.

Those headline numbers don't tell the entire story. September was a more difficult month across many areas of the market. The DOW and small-cap stocks declined, and market leadership narrowed as higher interest rates created additional pressure for smaller companies and more rate-sensitive investments. Technology remained one of the stronger areas of the market, continuing a theme we have seen throughout much of the year.

Despite the volatility, there continue to be reasons for optimism. Corporate earnings have remained strong, with S&P 500 earnings growing by nearly 30% over the past year. Consumer spending and business investment have also remained resilient, providing important fundamental support even as markets contend with higher oil prices, an overseas war, inflation and interest rates.

Looking Ahead

As we move into the final quarter of 2026, we expect markets to continue balancing some competing forces.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% in September, its first increase since 2023, as persistent inflation and higher oil prices changed the interest-rate outlook. At the same time, corporate earnings, consumer spending and business investment remain relatively strong.

We also believe additional volatility will be expected as we approach the November midterm elections. Markets don't particularly like uncertainty, and there is plenty of it right now. As the election passes and some of that uncertainty is removed, attention can increasingly return to corporate earnings, economic growth and the outlook for 2027.

Artificial intelligence also remains an important part of that picture. What began primarily as a technology investment story has expanded into data centers, energy infrastructure, lending and broader business investment. Investment on AI-related infrastructure has grown significantly over the past several years, making it an increasingly important contributor to economic activity and this brings it own additional potential risks.

Our Perspective

At Three Leaf Financial, we don't believe every investment should try to accomplish the same objective. Instead, we intentionally build portfolios where each component serves a specific purpose.

Our growth investments are designed to participate in the long-term appreciation of the stock market. That also means they will experience periods of market volatility along the way. The past several months has been a good example of why diversification matters, as leadership has shifted repeatedly between different sectors, investment styles and company sizes.

Our structured note strategies serve a different role. Rather than attempting to maximize market appreciation, they are designed to provide systematic interest opportunities with a more measured risk profile. Together, these strategies allow us to build portfolios that seek to balance growth, income and stability based on each client's individual goals.

As we head toward year-end, our focus remains on staying disciplined and positioning portfolios for long-term objectives rather than reacting to short-term market headlines.

Your Portfolio Update

Around Three Leaf Financial

Northern Virginia Office Update

Things are officially underway at our future Northern Virginia office. We've selected the carpet and colors, and the build-out process has now begun.

We are currently targeting a move in December 2026 or January 2027. As we mentioned last month, we aren't going far. The new office is just a few blocks closer to Fairfax Town Square and will give our team a great new space to serve clients for years to come. We plan to keep the same office phone number and we will be in the high rise office building sharing a parking lot with the Fairfax Public Library.

There is nothing you need to do at this point. As we get closer to moving day, we'll provide everyone with the new address, timing and any other details you'll need.

CPA & Tax Services

As we shared last month, we have established a relationship with Hendershot-Burkhardt Tax Services in Manassas. Their team can assist clients with personal and business tax preparation and other tax-related needs.

For clients interested in speaking with their team:

Hendershot-Burkhardt Tax Services

7525 Presidential Lane, Manassas, VA 20109

Phone: 703-361-1592

Email: info@hbtaxes.net

Hendershot-Burkhardt Tax Services website

Estate Planning Resources

We have also begun making introductions to our expanded network of estate planning attorneys for clients who have recently asked for assistance with wills, trusts and other estate planning documents.

Estate planning is about much more than determining who receives your assets. Proper planning helps ensure your wishes can continue to be carried out if you're unable to make decisions yourself and provides clear direction for your family regarding how you want your assets and legacy handled.

For many families, wills, powers of attorney, healthcare directives and trust documents can all play important roles. A properly structured trust may also help provide continuity in the management of assets and establish clear instructions for how and when those assets ultimately pass to family members or other beneficiaries.

The appropriate documents and structure will depend on your individual circumstances, which is why working with an experienced estate planning attorney is important.

If your estate documents are outdated, your family circumstances have changed, or you've simply been putting off getting a plan in place, please let us know. We can provide additional information and make a warm introduction to one of the attorneys we work with.

A Continued Reminder About Scams & Fraud

As Artificial Intelligence takes a more prominent role in everyday life, we have continued to see more attempted scams targeting clients and retirees, so we want to keep this reminder simple:

Never provide passwords, verification codes, account numbers or other sensitive financial information in response to an unexpected phone call, email or text.

Remember that the first step in a scam is to create an “emotional” immediate response.

If someone contacts you claiming to represent a financial institution, government agency, technology company or another organization and asks for personal information or money, stop and verify the request independently.

Most importantly, if anyone unexpectedly asks you for financial information, passwords, account access or to move money, please contact us before acting. We would much rather help you verify a legitimate request than have you discover afterward that it was fraudulent.